The Great Power Realignment

The global geopolitical landscape is experiencing unprecedented shifts as major powers recalibrate their relationships in an increasingly multipolar world. The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency has accelerated these changes, creating both opportunities and challenges for South Asian nations caught in the crosscurrents of great power competition.

The much-celebrated India-US strategic partnership, carefully nurtured over two decades, now faces its most serious test. What was once described as having "extraordinary chemistry" between leaders has quickly deteriorated into a relationship marked by trade disputes and strategic miscalculations.

Trump's aggressive trade policies have hit India particularly hard. The imposition of 25% tariffs on Indian imports represents a significant blow to a trade relationship worth $130 billion annually. India's major exports to the US—pharmaceuticals, electronics, and Apple iPhones assembled in India—now face substantial barriers that could reshape global supply chains.

The timing couldn't be worse for India, which had positioned itself as a beneficiary of US-China tensions. Apple's decision to move significant operations from China to India was seen as a strategic win, but new tariffs threaten to undermine these gains.

Perhaps more concerning for India is the additional 25% penalty tariff imposed due to its continued ties with Russia. This represents a fundamental challenge to India's traditional strategic autonomy, forcing New Delhi to choose between economic benefits from the West and strategic relationships with Moscow.

Prime Minister Modi's recent phone conversation with President Putin, followed by his national security adviser's Moscow visit, signals India's reluctance to abandon this critical partnership despite Western pressure.

While India grapples with deteriorating US relations, Pakistan finds itself in an unexpectedly advantageous position, attempting to balance relationships with both superpowers.

The sudden warming of US-Pakistan relations represents one of the most significant geopolitical shifts in South Asia. Pakistan has secured favorable trade terms with reduced 19% tariffs, opening new export opportunities and potentially reducing its structural trade deficit with the US.

Key developments include:

• $1 billion US crude oil import deal

• Discussions on cryptocurrency cooperation

• Energy resource exploration agreements

• US designation of Balochistan Liberation Army's Majeed Brigade as a terrorist organization

However, the concept of "de-securitization" in US-Pakistan relations faces practical limitations. Both countries have maintained security-focused ties for over 75 years, and shifting this paradigm while engaging primarily with Pakistan's defense establishment presents inherent contradictions.

The Kerry-Lugar Bill experience serves as a cautionary tale, demonstrating how attempts to broaden cooperation beyond security can backfire and strain civil-military relations domestically.

China's approach to these shifting dynamics reflects its characteristic diplomatic restraint. The recent visit of China's foreign minister to both Islamabad and Kabul signals Beijing's multifaceted strategy in the region.

While China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) remains robust, China's direct engagement with Afghanistan through Central Asian routes suggests a diversification strategy. This development should concern Pakistani policymakers, as it potentially reduces Pakistan's role as the primary gateway for Chinese access to South and West Asia. The cooling of momentum to extend CPEC into Afghanistan, combined with Taliban's pursuit of independent ties with Beijing, represents a subtle but significant shift in regional dynamics.

As noted in the analysis, the personalization of international relations by leaders like Trump, Modi, Xi Jinping, and Putin adds an element of unpredictability to geopolitical calculations. When relationships between nations become relationships between individuals, the stakes of personal ego and diplomatic missteps increase exponentially.

Former Indian ambassador Nirupama Rao's observation that trust "would have been lost forever" even if trade issues are resolved highlights the long-term damage that can result from such personalized diplomacy.

Implications for South Asian Stability

These shifting alliances carry profound implications for regional stability:

For India

• Strategic recalibration toward greater self-reliance and diversified partnerships

• Potential acceleration of ties with Russia and other non-Western partners

• Need to balance economic pragmatism with strategic autonomy

For Pakistan

• Unprecedented opportunity to reduce over-reliance on China

• Risk of being pressured into endorsing Abraham Accords and recalibrating Iran policy

• Challenge of maintaining strategic balance without institutional fragility

For Regional Dynamics

• Potential for increased India-Pakistan tensions as both compete for great power support

• Risk of Afghanistan becoming a new arena of great power competition

• Implications for regional connectivity and trade routes

The current geopolitical realignment presents both opportunities and risks for South Asian nations. Pakistan's establishment appears confident in its ability to balance competing relationships, while India faces the challenge of maintaining its strategic autonomy in an increasingly polarized world.

The key question remains whether these nations can leverage current opportunities while avoiding the pitfalls of great power competition. History suggests that such openings are often squandered by short-term thinking and institutional weaknesses.

For sustainable strategic positioning, South Asian nations must focus on:

• Institutional strengthening over personality-driven diplomacy

• Economic diversification to reduce dependence on any single partner

• Regional cooperation to enhance collective bargaining power

• Long-term strategic planning over reactive policy-making

The evolving geopolitical landscape offers South Asian nations a chance to reshape their international relationships and strategic positioning. However, success will depend on their ability to navigate complex trade-offs between economic interests, security concerns, and domestic political considerations.

As the global order continues to evolve, the nations that can maintain strategic flexibility while building institutional resilience will be best positioned to benefit from these historic changes. The current moment represents not just a challenge to existing partnerships, but an opportunity to build more balanced and sustainable international relationships for the future.

The author is an advocate and analyst focusing law and geopolitical developments affecting South Asia.