The Threat of Global Warming and the Ways to Counter It

In the summer of 2022, one-third of Pakistan was underwater. The monsoon rains that year were 190 per cent above the historical average. Glaciers in the north, melting at rates that scientists had not predicted until the 2050s, contributed billions of litres of additional water to already swollen rivers. Thirty-three million people were displaced. Over 1,700 died. The economic damage was estimated at $30 billion — nearly ten per cent of GDP. Pakistan's climate minister described it as a "climate catastrophe of epic proportions." She was not exaggerating.

Pakistan contributes less than one per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. It is among the ten countries most vulnerable to climate change. This is the central injustice of global warming: the nations that have contributed least to the problem are suffering its consequences most severely.

The science of global warming is not seriously contested. The Earth's average surface temperature has risen by approximately 1.1 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial era, driven by the accumulation of greenhouse gases — primarily carbon dioxide and methane — in the atmosphere. These gases trap heat that would otherwise escape into space, warming the planet in ways that are already producing measurable and serious consequences: rising sea levels, more intense and frequent extreme weather events, shifts in precipitation patterns, and the accelerating melting of glaciers and ice sheets.

For Pakistan, the consequences are not abstract. The country sits at the intersection of several climate vulnerabilities. Its northern regions contain more glaciers than anywhere outside the polar regions — glaciers that are melting at an accelerating rate, producing both short-term flooding through glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and long-term water scarcity as the glacial reserves that feed the Indus river system are depleted.

The global response to climate change has been inadequate. The Paris Agreement of 2015 was a diplomatic achievement of historic significance. But the gap between the commitments made in Paris and the actions taken since has been enormous. Global emissions have continued to rise.

Pakistan's domestic response has been more impressive than its international profile suggests. The Ten Billion Tree Tsunami programme has been internationally recognised as a model reforestation initiative. Pakistan has committed to generating sixty per cent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030.

On the global stage, Pakistan has a moral authority that it has not fully exercised. As a frontline state — a country that is suffering severe climate impacts despite having contributed minimally to the problem — Pakistan has a legitimate and powerful case to make to the world.

Survival is not optional. The choice Pakistan faces is not between action and inaction on climate change. It is between managed adaptation and catastrophic disruption. The 2022 floods were not a once-in-a-century event. They are, on current trajectories, a preview of the new normal.